The WAG THE DOG Manifesto

The overriding question right now is where we go from here.

This weekend we "tipped." The on-going tensions between the hunting and the shooting sides of the overall firearms market, which I have been reporting on since I started this blog three years ago, boiled over, and for the very first time, the shooting side of the market flexed its muscles.

And suddenly the whole industry now understands what we have known for years — we are the tail wagging the dog.

There were hints of this at the SHOT Show this year. You couldn't walk the floor in Orlando without a sense that a profound change was underway. The "buzz" was all about black rifles, with the new military pistols and precision rifles following behind. It reminded me of the SHOT Shows in the early 1980s, when the tsunami of practical shooting swept the handgun industry. One year we couldn't even get an appointment with major handgun execs...the next, we're being fetted and the floor is awash in trick 1911s.

There were other market indicators that were consistently overlooked:

• Ammo sales — In recent years, it's .223, 7.62 X 39, .308, with the "traditional" calibers falling behind.
• Parts and accessories sales — In the last 12 months, AR-platform parts and accessories have swamped even the huge 1911 P&A market.
• Major manufacturer participation — S&W successfully launches their M&P AR-15; SIGARMS successfully launches their 556; more announcements are scheduled for later this year.
• Expanded competition opportunities — The explosive growth of 3-gun matches and carbine/rifle precision matches is on the way to recreating a "nation of riflemen (and women)."
• The widespread acceptance of black rifles as a home self-defense tool — this is huge; I'm a convert myself.
• Demand for carbine training courses — Through the ceiling across the country...the shooting academies are packin' 'em in for black rifle classes.
• Expanded caliber offerings — Yes, it was obvious even before Sunday that black rifles were moving decisively into the game fields. From exotics like .30-06 tpo the various .458s, to the WSSM cartridges, the AR platform has proven to be amazingly adaptable.

One point I've made before and I want to make very strongly again is that Jim Zumbo didn't say a single thing I haven't heard before from other "hook and bullet" writers. Such writings and statements are, indeed, based on an ignorance of how the market is shifting.

That ignorance is dangerous. Take a look at USA Today's article this AM:

Police needing heavier weapons
Chiefs cite spread of assault rifles
By Kevin Johnson
USA TODAY

WASHINGTON — Law enforcement agencies across the country have been upgrading their firepower to deal with what they say is the increasing presence of high-powered weapons on the streets.

Scott Knight, chairman of the Firearms Committee of the International Association of Chiefs of Police, says an informal survey of about 20 departments revealed that since 2004 all of the agencies have either added weapons to officers' patrol units or have replaced existing weaponry with military-style arms.

Knight, police chief in Chaska, Minn., says the upgrades have occurred since a national ban on certain assault weapons expired in September 2004. The ban, passed in 1994, in part prohibited domestic gunmakers from producing semi-automatic weapons and ammunition dispensers holding more than 10 rounds.

There is a new AWB being considered in Congress, and while this one will likely go nowhere, no one I've talked to believes this will be the last one floated out...especially if a Democrat is elected President in 2008.

Black rifles and their "kin" — .50 BMG guns, long-range precision rifles (aka "sniper" gun), "assault pistols," etc. — will be the RKBA battleground for the forseable future. It is also the primary area of growth, where the new shooters (and, honestly, the new hunters) will come from.

I believe — or maybe I hope — that the industry is now ready to step up to the facts and accord us both the respect and the equal funding our side of the market deserves. That's what I'm hearing.

That's the happy talk part; here's the ugly part. The reason hook and bullet writers have been able to get away with saying such things is through the tacit approval of the people who drive that side of the industry. That has to stop. Remington and Cabela's have taken a huge step in the right direction by disavowing the Jim Zumbo comments; the big boys, Mossy Oak, Realtree and the like, now need to step up and add their voices for unity. The hunting lobbying groups need to make it clear that an attack on one is an attack on all...that there is no difference between an AR-15 and a fine Perazzi shotgun when it comes to the firearms community; that the community will no longer tolerate a discussion on which baby should be thrown off the lifeboat.

I think we're at a watershed moment, and it's up to us to make that moment count. I am profoundly sorry that it was Jim Zumbo who fell under the bus, but every one of us who writes for a living understand that we live and die by those words we write. I was told that by my very first editor when I wrote my first newspaper article for publication in 1968; nothing has changed now except the speed at which we're all judged — and the absence of that "editor" who might caution moderation on our part.

It's scary to reach a tipping point and see how quickly things change. I believe we are now in the driver's seat...where are we going?