Monday, January 21, 2008

Is Tomorrow the End of the Road...


...for Fred?

I'm hearing rumors from very deep but highly placed source that tomorrow may be the day Fred Thompson ends his campaign for the President.

Sigh. We've heard that before, but after Fred's less-than-stellar finish in South Carolina it's hard to imagine how the campaign can go on.

If that's indeed he case, where do we go from there? I think the outlines of the answer to that question can be found in this excellent article, essentially a post-mortem, from Bob Krumm:
Even without a win, Fred’s presence was important to this contest. Before this summer the GOP contest pitted the social conservative, the fiscal conservative, and the military conservative against each other. Fred entered the race and effectively told Republican voters, that they didn’t have to settle for just one. Since his entry, rhetorically at least, the other candidates have echoed his across-the-board conservatism.

Fred’s loss doesn’t mean that he will no longer be a significant part of what happens in Minneapolis. In a divided field his delegates may make a difference; that’s why I’m voting for him in the Tennessee primary in two weeks. And Fred will almost certainly be on the short list of potential running mates no matter which of the remaining candidates is the nominee. Still, “What might have been?” is what millions of Americans wondered as they learned the results of South Carolina’s primary.

19 comments:

nj_larry said...

"Where do we go from here"? No different from when you get "deeply confused" in the woods. You hunker down and figure out a new plan. Then you methodically execute on the new plan. If you become so devastated by having experienced something so common you shouldn't be in the woods.

Best-Case Scenario Consulting said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
JoeMerchant24 said...

Not an endorsement... but he is pals with McCain, so that's the most likely VP offer...

Anonymous said...

Uh how many states do we have? 50? How many have had a primary/caucus? 5

How many delegates are in the GOP? 2488

How many have been 'won' 156

OK we are 6% into this. Michael I think your hat is too tight, there is still plenty of race left to watch.

Yuri Orlov said...

We can still write him in, right?

Fiftycal said...

It takes 1244 delagates to get the nomination. Until that happens, FRED should still be in the race. With the 5 way race, it is quite conceivable that no one will have the needed number all the way up to the convention.

In other words, it ain't over til it's over.

Anonymous said...

Jeez,

MB recoginizes it is over but you Fredheads just don't get it do you? It is over. Quit worshipping at the altar of Fred and move on.

JWilliams said...

Fred is dead and with his last breath he took Huckabee with him - and cost us all a loss on the 2nd amendment front. Thanks Fred Heads!

Anonymous said...

Is that "Best-Case Scenario Consulting" a spam bot? It's name would indicate as such...

Anonymous said...

Fred is dead and with his last breath he took Huckabee with him - and cost us all a loss on the 2nd amendment front. Thanks Fred Heads!

YOU CRAZY? Only 6% in this HELLO!
You've given up hope for our nation? Might as well back Obama!

Anonymous said...

Well if Fred did take out the Huckster and saved us from the Huck theocracy, then I say more power to him!

Anonymous said...

That leaves:

"Life long hunter and NRA member" Romney who has stated he WILL sign an AWB.

Or "I have always been antigun except when I decided to be president" Guiliani.

Or "I voted against the AWB both times BUT want to close the gunshow loophole" McCain.

gullyborg said...

> MB recoginizes it is over but you Fredheads just don't get it do you?

Actually, it sounds like MB isn't recognizing anything being over so much as reporting that some "experts" say it is over and he wants to know if it is or not.

Simple answer: it is not.

Honest answer: the road ahead is damn tough, and Fred could easily lose. But, the road ahead is damn tough for Romney and Giuliani as well.

What happens if Giuliani's "win Florida then sweep Super Tuesday" plan fails? What if Giuliani does piss poor in Florida?

Should Giuliani drop out? If he does, how does that change the race?

McCain has done well so far because he won liberal NH, then came up with a mere 33%, that's ONE THIRD, in SC... about as well as he did in 2000, with the rest of the GOP split up 5 ways. In both states, he was able to court independent voters. Can McCain continue to win in states with closed primaries, with other candidates dropping out and allowing support to cluster around fewer alternatives?

Romney: he won MI, but he was SUPPOSED to win MI. It's HIS state. He won Nevada and Wyoming... where no one else from the GOP even campaigned. He might lead in total votes and delegates right now, but can he ever break through with a real win in a contested state where he doesn't have the most popular former governor ever for his father? Should Romney drop out after coming in BEHIND Fred in SC?

Huckabee: he can only win in states where he can get huge numbers of evangelicals to turn out. He was embarassed in MI. Can he deliver swing states like Ohio? Can he sustain his campaign when he hasn't won anything since an incredibly flawed Iowa Caucus? What happens to Huck in primary states like New York and California, states with many more secular voters and huge numbers of delegates?

Paul? Heh.

Hunter? Out.

What if no one in the GOP can put together consistent wins by large margins?

What if this goes to a brokered convention?

It is too early for Fred to drop out. He needs to at least continue through Florida, to see what the other candidates can do there.

HOWEVER...

He does need to look ahead with an exit strategy if he continues to linger around 3rd place or below. Maybe he isn't the man to win this race. But, he could be the man to choose the winner. Let's assume he does poorly in Florida and is out of money and hope heading into Super Tuesday. Odds are, it will still be a close race between McCain, Huck, and Mitt. Giuliani could see himself back in the thick of it as the campaign heads into the states where Rudy has focused his efforts. It could be wide open. If Fred is convinced he can't win, then he could by kingmaker by dropping out and endorsing.

Maybe doing so would ensure him a VP job.

But he needs to keep trying for now, and keep watching the other campaigns. And Fredheads need to keep up their support and keep the money coming in until Fred is actually out.

An awful lot of people out there keep saying "well, I would support for Fred if I though he could win."

Guess what? Fred COULD win if all of you iffers got off the fence and voted for him.

So keep fighting - but if getting out is inevitable, then encourage Fred to get behind the best conservative alternative and push conservative values as a potential VP.

Anonymous said...

Looks like it is really over now. Do we back the C+ NRA rated McCain. McCain is looking better and better as a candidate to be honest in the take what we can get catagory.

nj_larry said...

Seeing that a new AWB is inveitable now, I would recommend buying some full ARs if you can afford it or at least some stripped lowers for the serial numbers. Tuck them into the safe and pray that you will be able to keep them, if Hillary will allow you to.

nj_larry said...

Time to call the undertaker...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap
/20080122/ap_on_el_pr/
thompson;_ylt=At1ptIjlqxdUl_Zw7yslPFSs0NUE

RVN11B said...

Sling crap all you desire, but until he actually REMOVES himself from the fight then Ill stick with him.

A bloody nose or skinned knuckle does not mean the fight is over. At least for most people I know.

Others may 'blow' with the wind and feel fullfilled, but I will stand fast and hold on to my convictions.

Anonymous said...

The candidates rank this way on guns...

#1 Huckabee
#2 Fred
#3 McCain

everybody else is wither horrible on guns or the guy that finishes least in the 100 yard dash but gets a green ribbon for participating.

Fred's now out. Huckabee is running out of money and can't go national on Feb 5. Romney looks like he's proving money can't buy you love. His only victory was Michigan which was more a vote for George Romney than Mitt. Rudy hopes to make it through Florida but may find that despite all the NY transplants, it ain't the 6th borough.

McCain is looking like the guy. On Feb. 5 it becomes a "national race" and he is leading. He leads Rudy in NY state by a good margin.

If we wanted Fred to be it we only have ourselves to blame. Instead of complaining about what he wasn't doing or why he didn't come to our state/county/city/neighborhood to get our vote, maybe, just maybe we should have backed him hard.

But that requires work and well, we know how much we like doing that as opposed to posting messages on blogs and forums.

So now it looks like we have McCain as our best option. So now is the time to get on board, that is of course if you don't want a Democrat in charge.

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