Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Strategies for Surviving on the Other Side of the Bubble

My ubiquitous travel cold seems to be receding, which is great because it gives all-new road viruses a chance to take hold! Was a glorious late summer morning here at the New Improved Secret Hidden Bunker while Newt and I were out walking. For some reason the light reminded me of late summer mornings in NYC many many years ago whenI was living in a 5th floor walk-up in Greenwich Village. I remember thinking that, man, I'd never leave the City! LOL! How things change.

I did a presentation yesterday for OC on the state of the industry, and I thought you guys might be I terested in the Cliff Notes version. Marshal and I called the top of the market in late June last year, so we're 14-15 months into the down side. I'm thinking that we're not at the bottom yet, but I suspect we'll see it before SHOT 2015. Black rifle sales are, as everybody knows, pretty much in the crapper...essentially, anyone who was even thinking about buying an AR or an AK sucked it up and bought, leaching huge amounts of "gun money" out of the system.

People are still buying black rifles, but not at the historic rates of the last couple of years. I believe we'll find a new normal pretty soon. Concealable handgun sales are holding up pretty well — concealed carry is still the primary driver for the market. Accessories are down, but not as emphatically as black rifle sales.

I'm seeing a "race to the bottom" on AR pricing. ArmaLite's $600 ARs ($900 for the 7.62s) have put a stake in the ground; the blow-out houses (Centerfire Systems, CDNN, etc.) are below that $600 stake already. I saw one deal with an AR and 5 mags for $550-ish. Keep you eye on that market niche, kids!

It could be and has been worse.


clark myers said...

True that. Great prices on mass produced quality too e.g.CDNN on a Colt 6920. I'm still waiting for a nice black rifle in .204 Ruger though. To some degree the low prices seem be associated with everybody chasing the same buyer. A little more effort to be a little different might help.

I'm looking at the market in general with very mixed feelings though. When I found that I could cover multiple guns at the same time and pay for only one background check I could no more pass up a second than I can avoid buying more to max out a hazmat charge.

My point is that really nice used hunting firearms should be in high demand this time of year and they too can be had at historical lows. That's a bad sign going into this year's election.

KevinC said...

This Christmas season will be the winnowing. There's a lot of companies limping along right now, selling off inventory at whatever they can get, hoping to make it to the holiday season and that will put them in shape for next year.

Not so sure Christmas will be that good, though, as too many companies are betting heavily on it, and therefore prices will still stay low.

SHOT Show 2015 is going to be an interesting affair.

David said...

I knew the bubble was done for when I saw this weekend's ad from Kentucky Gun Company in Bardstown, KY...featuring their own parts-built AR for $469!

Anonymous said...

Firearm mfgs might be on the backside of the bubble but good luck feeding your new AR if you reload. I haven't been able to find powder locally (Denver, Co) or mail order for what seems like over a year now.

JobninMd.(Help!?!!) said...

Can't afford new guns, trying to lay in ammo. Which is harder when income barely covers beans and bills. I need (want) a case of .22lr, but not at $60. a brick. And reloading components are a worry. Esp. Primers. Here in the People's Dem. Rep. of Md., is even harder. How about a rundown, Michael? Help the Resistance, please. The chair is against the wall. Jacque has a long mustache. Viva LA Maqui!

Anonymous said...

I wouldn't relax just yet. This years election and the massive amounts of money that the "anti's" are spending and about to, will affect prices and availability again.

In the side-bar to this blog, there's commentary on the affect that Kalifornee-ah's lead ammo ban will have on some prices. It will affect ammo prices and availability well beyond lead-free too.

I hope that we don't get complacent again, as some did (even here) prior to the last resurgence of anti-gun activity. I remember Dave S's comments well: "Gun control is dead. They know better than to try." That was before Colorado, New York and "Kali'".

Life Member

DamDoc said...

Two words regarding the ubiquitous cold.. Neti Pot.. I travel a lot, and that keeps me pretty much cold free and clear headed (I used to be an allergy sufferer).. use it first thing and last thing.. just don't use amoeba infested pond water in it!

Anonymous said...

I was looking at ARs for sale at Palmeto State Armoury, they had one for less that 600. I was amazed considering they have a good reputation for making quality rifles
Gerard in CT

Tim F said...

I think politicians are laying low until the elections are over and then the deification will impact the oscillating device. I really expect a Royal Proclamation.

Awtha said...

MB, re. your "ubiquitous travel cold" - google "Fisherman's Friend" - as you would say "THEY'RE NOT A SPONSOR" but let me tell you these things just work, having sailed the north seas for many a month we stopped into the UK for R&R - went to the apothecary shop & was told I've got JUST the thing for you! (& it was!) So when I saw them for sale at my local grocery store years later they are always on my survival list.