Moving On

Split milk, morning after, harsh recriminations aside, I woke up this morning thinking that if we're smart and focused, we can move forward and minimize our losses. This may be a bit Pollyanna-ish on my part, but here's my reasoning:

• There are a lot of other big ticket issues on the table for the new President.
• While we didn't prevail in this election — and in retrospect I doubt that there was any way to stop this landslide while saddled with Bush, the tanking economy, an upopular war, etc. — we're still a prickly cactus to swallow. With the big ticket items in play, does the new administration either want or need a nasty sideshow on guns?
• We have, as I stated in my podcast last Wednesday, Democratic and Republican allies.
• We also have an uncommitted middle, recently elected politicians — mostly Democratic — pols who would like to have an on-going career and who are not deeply in the antigun camp. Again, do you stick your hand into a hornets' nest if you don't have to?

Part of our moving forward battle plan depends on how things play out in Washington. In light of the challenges out there, the most logicial thing would be for guns to be back-burnered, which would be a best-case for us because it gives us more time to prepare. In case you missed it, here's the President's antigun agenda, from his own President-Elect website:

Address Gun Violence in Cities: As president, Barack Obama would repeal the Tiahrt Amendment, which restricts the ability of local law enforcement to access important gun trace information, and give police officers across the nation the tools they need to solve gun crimes and fight the illegal arms trade. Obama and Biden also favor commonsense measures that respect the Second Amendment rights of gun owners, while keeping guns away from children and from criminals who shouldn't have them. They support closing the gun show loophole and making guns in this country childproof. They also support making the expired federal Assault Weapons Ban permanent, as such weapons belong on foreign battlefields and not on our streets.

That defines our battlefield, which gives us a blueprint for preparation. For example, in the very near future an ad hoc group put other by me and several other media experts I've worked with will present a plan to the industry on fighting a new AWB. A large portion of that plan will be an education program, aimed at the uncommitted middle, that puts lie to the statement that such guns "belong on foreign battlefields and not on our streets." One of the concepts that we pioneered a decade ago in the white heat battles of the Clinton Presidency was what I termed "reasonable doubt" — we weren't trying to convert people to our side; rather, we wanted to instill a "reasonable doubt" about the other sides' arguments, facts, legislation, etc. That reasonable doubt, coupled with the "soft and unstated" carrot/stick of support or opposition in future elections, can sway the uncommitted middle.

We must think asymmetrically as we move forward. We need to have response programs in place before the shoe falls, and — note to me! — we have to shun feel-good absolutism and focus on the new world political realities.

In the meantime, what do we personally need to be doing?

• Join the NRA...right now!
• Buy an AR and become a person who has a personal stake in the outcome of the coming battle.
• If you already own an AR, buy another one. The more "black rifles" in general circulation, the better.
• Buy standard capacity magazines.
• Take a deep breath and get ready for the fight!

BTW, here's a pretty good commenatry on what the next four years may look like from ShrinkWrapped, who recommends relaxed vigilance:

The idea that Barack Obama's election is going to usher in the long, dark night of fascism in America is troubling. I have no doubt that there are groups and individuals on the far left who would like nothing more than to form the nidus of an American brown shirted militia, but we are a very long way away from such an eventuality. Vigilance by the loyal opposition will be necessary int he next four years but I would like to echo Glenn Reynold's comment, in reaction tot he formation of an "Impeach Obama" group on Facebook:

Really, can't people at least wait until he's sworn in and, you know, actually done something to merit impeachment? Sigh.

It may well be true that Barack Obama is the most liberal President we have ever elected, but reality always supersedes ideology in America. One of the great strengths of our system is that it tolerates perturbations and because of our dynamic equilibrium has much more flexibility and error tolerance than any other political system. This does not mean that a powerful enough perturbation could not break the system, but it does mean that we have far more resiliency than a great many people imagine.

If Barack Obama institutes the full panoply of promised liberal and quasi-socialist policies in the face of the economic and geopolitical realities of our time, one of two outcomes is most likely. Either those of us who opposed him will prove to be correct and various setbacks large and small will accrue or we will find that we were wrong and liberal/quasi-socialist policies, although having never before worked anywhere, will prove to work and we will all benefit. If the former is closer to the reality, no amountof MSM biasand slanting would protect Barack Obama and the Democratic Congress (with approval ratings hovering somewhere south of President Bush's numbers) from an electoral correction in 2010 and 2012. If the latter is the case, we will have eight years of PresidentObama, the country will prosper, international relations will improve and I will happily admit my Conservative beliefs have been superseded by reality.

In fact, I doubt either of these outcomes are in store. Barack Obama is a very smart man and I would presume he has no desire to be a failed, one term President. Further, I do not think he is surrounded by economic illiterates. Just as the old military adage suggests that "no battle plan ever survives contact with the enemy", in America no ideology has ever survived contact with an inimical reality.