Monday, July 06, 2009

The Gun Market & Economics 101

More and more I'm hearing that not only is the run on ARs over, the pipeline is starting to backup with unsold black rifles. This from our DRTV Forums. To be sure, AR variants are now available over the counter in many gun stores and some on-line outlets.

This would certainly be consistent with other "bubbles," and that may mean an opportunity. Remember we reported from the NRA Show that manufacturers thought we'd reached "peak AR" and that anywhere from 30-60% of their backorders would vanish as the market cooled. The time between the first slacking of demand and the normalization of the market, probably at least 3 months out, will see guns in the pipeline that were ordered by dealers/distributors but are destined to sit on shelves until the market levels out. 

A little less than 2 years ago you could find a serviceable AR for $600-800...expect to see those prices again, but not forever!  Act accordingly. Hey, Sarah Conner has an should you!


Dan said...

A rifle without ammo is a club. Can pick up a baseball bat much cheaper. LOL.

Alex said...

Finger on the trigger, muzzle up.
Why don't they have a decent firearms training?!
I guess we all know the answer ...

nj_larry said...

Last week I checked out Davidson's for ARs. They had hundreds of them in inventory....that told me the dam had broke.

Now waiting for Sarah PALIN to take on BHO in either a spin off series to the Chronicles or a new movie....

Middle Man said...

I can confirm that inventory has stacked up at the retail level and is beginning to stack up at wholesale now. A great many of the retail and wholesale buyers that floated "hey, look at the size of my PO" orders back in Nov/Dec 2008 began to back track on those bloated purchase orders the last week of June.

Anonymous said...

Gun shows I have been to recently are showing a large number of ARs and a good assortment of pistols. Not many people buying. Ammo is still in somewhat short supply, but improving. Primers? NO!!!

Anonymous said...

Both LGS are filled with AR's. CDNN advertised "new, lower prices" on its AR's this past week. Before that they were giving away goodies with the purchase of AR's.

I'm seeing ammo in the LGS. The ammo boom is cresting later than the AR/AK/handgun boom but IT WILL crest.

I blame part of the ammo shortage on MB and other media types who keep fanning the flames of " buy, buy, buy!".

Anonymous said...

My local Gander Mountain store had at least 2 pallets af 5.56X45, the week before last. 9mm and 45 acp were still out. So, buy it if you WANT it! It's better to have it and not need it, than to need it and not have it. And share some with your buddies, if they need some.
Life Member

Anonymous said...

"Finger on the trigger, muzzle up.
Why don't they have a decent firearms training?!"

It's a movie poster not a training aid. Its there to sell tickets not train shooters.

She was one hot momma in that movie


Darrell said...

I think you'll see a lot of buyers' remorse or people in financial straits selling off may of those EBRs that were sold after the '08 election. There will be some good deals to be had.

Brent Mattis said...

I've been watching the gun market for several years now and last fall I clearly saw the makings of a bubble. I wrote an article on the bubble in gun and ammo prices back in march:
What Stimulated the Gun and Ammo Market?

I'm glad to see my predictions are being validated.

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